Pandemics, Modelling, and Policy – Online Course – FutureLearn

Explore how scientists model the spread of pandemics and what this tells us about the policy options for managing COVID-19 Discover the role forecasts and computer models play in understanding pandemics With the world in the grip of the coronavirus pandemic there has been a surge of interest in scientific modelling of the outbreak On this course youll explore the social economic and political factors in the spread of a pandemic such as COVID-19 examining how scientists try to forecast the spread and severity of epidemics and what we can and cant know Youll use interactive graphical programs to explore the dynamics of epidemics learning how to critique the underlying models and how science and computer models can support policymakers in times of pandemic crisis COVID-19 a brief description the problem and what we need to know The nature of prediction why things can or cant be predicted Modelling creating and using computational models Policy how is policy made How does policy interface to science Complex systems science for exploring and planning the future Explain the currently accepted facts and statistics of COVID-19 such as the incubation period recovery time and basic reproduction rates Explain what models are and how they are used in policy making Model the COVID-19 pandemic using computational methods including time series and implementations of the SIR Susceptible Infected Recovered model Evaluate and critique models and computer modelling in a policy context Explain the difference between macro-modelling at the level of a whole population micro-modelling at the level of the individual and meso-modelling at the level of organisations and social events Evaluate reports used to guide policy and explain how policy makers must deal with conflicting scientific evidence